The Ontario government has released its 2025 Fall Economic Statement outlining new fiscal and investment measures aimed at protecting the province from the impact of U.S. tariffs and a sluggish global economy, while maintaining a path to balance the budget by 2027–28.
The report, titled A Plan to Protect Ontario, projects real GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in 2025 and 0.9 per cent in 2026, with a deficit forecast of $13.5 billion for 2025–26 — an improvement of $1.1 billion from the spring budget outlook.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy said tariffs are directly targeting Ontario’s workers and communities, and that the government will continue to invest in highways, transit, health care, and other essential public services while keeping costs down for families.
The plan includes a full rebate of the provincial portion of the HST for first-time home buyers purchasing new homes valued up to $1 million, subject to federal approval — a measure that could save buyers up to $80,000.
The government is also providing an additional $100 million for the Ontario Together Trade Fund, bringing total funding to $150 million over three years to help small and medium-sized enterprises diversify markets and reduce dependency on U.S. exports.
A new Ontario Tax Action Plan will update the province’s personal and corporate tax systems to boost competitiveness and attract investment.
The province also plans to temporarily increase the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit from 10 to 15 per cent and expand eligibility to corporations that are not Canadian-controlled private corporations.
In health care, the government will invest $1.1 billion over three years to strengthen home care services and expand the Hospital to Home program, aimed at reducing hospital pressures and improving access to appropriate care.
The Protecting Ontario Account, valued at $5 billion, will continue to support sectors most affected by tariffs, including the steel, aluminum, copper, and automotive industries.
Ontario will also move forward with its $201-billion, 10-year infrastructure plan, including more than $33 billion in 2025–26, to sustain jobs and stimulate the economy during uncertain times.
The province’s net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected at 37.7 per cent, slightly below previous forecasts, and the 2024–25 deficit came in at $1.1 billion — well below the $9.8 billion predicted earlier.
The government will launch consultations in the coming months to prepare the 2026 Ontario Budget, focusing on job creation, keeping taxes and costs low, and advancing key infrastructure projects that support Ontario’s long-term economic resilience.
