Doug Ford’s decision to call a snap election 15 months early has resulted in a historic victory, securing his Progressive Conservative Party a third consecutive majority government — a feat unmatched at Queen’s Park since Premier Leslie Frost in 1959.
With 80 seats won out of 124, Ford’s PCs secured a majority, though slightly smaller than the 83 seats they captured in 2022. The Progressive Conservatives took 42.9 per cent of the popular vote in a campaign heavily focused on Ford’s positioning as a defender of Ontario’s economy against threatened 25 per cent tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump.
“We asked the people for a mandate … the people said yes,” Ford told a crowd of supporters Thursday night at the Toronto Congress Centre in Etobicoke.
The victory comes with caveats. Voter turnout was approximately 44 per cent, tying a record low for an Ontario election and mirroring the 2022 turnout. Ford also fell short of securing the expanded mandate he had sought by triggering the early vote, which cost Elections Ontario $189 million to administer.
Marit Stiles and the New Democrats will remain the official opposition, winning 27 seats despite capturing only 18.73 per cent of the popular vote — a reflection of the party’s concentrated support in urban centres like Toronto, Hamilton, London, and Niagara. The result represents a modest drop from the 28 seats the NDP held at dissolution.
Stiles celebrated the outcome at a rally in Toronto’s Queen Street West, calling it evidence that New Democrats remain a “progressive alternative” to Ford’s government.
Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals regained official party status, winning 14 seats — up from nine at dissolution — and capturing 29.66 per cent of the popular vote. However, Crombie herself lost her bid in Mississauga East-Cooksville to Progressive Conservative candidate Silvia Gualtieri.
“This is a building block for us,” Crombie said after the loss, pledging to remain as party leader. Gualtieri’s victory was aided by the political network of her son-in-law, Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown, a former PC leader.
The Liberals governed Ontario from 2003 to 2018 before Ford’s first majority swept them from power. This marks the party’s third consecutive election disappointment despite Crombie’s campaign focus on health care and the province’s doctor shortage.
Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner retained his seat in Guelph, and the party held Kitchener Centre with MPP Aislinn Clancy. However, the Greens failed to add a third seat, falling short in Parry Sound-Muskoka where incumbent PC candidate Graydon Smith prevailed.
“Together, we held Doug Ford’s feet to the fire,” Schreiner told supporters in Guelph.
Ford justified his decision to call the early vote by citing economic risks from Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canadian goods. However, opposition parties accused him of calling the election to get ahead of potential developments in the ongoing RCMP investigation into the $8.28-billion Greenbelt land swap scandal.
The controversial land deal — which Ford’s government reversed in 2023 following damning reports from Ontario’s auditor general and integrity commissioner — has already led to the resignation of two cabinet ministers and two senior staff. The RCMP investigation, launched in October 2023, remains ongoing, with several current and former Ford aides interviewed and more expected in the months ahead.
Ford has repeatedly insisted his government has “nothing to hide” regarding the Greenbelt, but the Tories were keen to hold an election before any potential charges or further revelations could emerge.
Ford’s campaign was not without missteps. During a police gala in London on the day the election was called, Ford told attendees that violent home invaders should face the electric chair — a punishment Canada abolished in 1976. Ford later claimed he was joking after the remarks were reported.
Another controversy emerged after Ford was caught on a “hot mic” in his campaign office, saying he had privately supported Trump’s re-election bid despite publicly criticizing him during the COVID-19 pandemic. The comment appeared to undercut the central justification for Ford’s early election call — portraying himself as a bulwark against Trump’s tariffs.
Ford also spent significant time campaigning in the United States, including two trips to Washington, D.C., where he lobbied American officials on trade and tariffs. This unprecedented focus on U.S. relations, combined with Ford’s limited engagement with Queen’s Park-based media during the campaign, drew criticism from opposition parties.
In addition to the $189 million election price tag, Ford’s government spent billions in the lead-up to the vote, including $3 billion in “tax rebate” cheques mailed to residents and $612 million to accelerate the expansion of alcohol sales in convenience stores and supermarkets. The PCs had pledged to expand alcohol sales since 2018 but accelerated the timeline to boost their appeal to voters.
With a fresh four-year mandate, Ford has promised to shield Ontario’s economy from the impact of Trump’s tariffs and deliver on his party’s populist economic message. Whether that mandate holds for a full term, or whether Ford again opts for an early election, remains to be seen.
